Most heuristic decisions are sub-optimal. That's OK, as long as the heuristic is avoided in cases where it is near-pessimal.
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Replying to @MakerOfDecision
In multi-polar contexts, this can be problematic; other participants may attempt to maneuver you towards pessimal cases.
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Replying to @MakerOfDecision
That's where calibration of heuristic decisions can be particularly critical - but it's also where refining your calibration can be hard.
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Replying to @MakerOfDecision
These multi-polar contexts are exactly where betting, or at least making clear claims to evaluate is useful. (See; https://weird.solar/inevitable-bets-versus-useful-bets-3182c6890aea … )
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Replying to @MakerOfDecision
In high-stakes contexts, public attempts at improving calibration can be used malevolently. (Especially in real conflict with outgroups.)
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Replying to @MakerOfDecision
Anyway, these problems are hard. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (But don't ignore that it's hard, or pretend that there is a simple way out of the bind.)
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Oh yea, for more on this, read Tim Thomas on Reflexive Control; https://www.rit.edu/~w-cmmc/literature/Thomas_2004.pdf … (Not "PsyOps" or misinterpretations of Boyd's OODA.)
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