Most heuristic decisions are sub-optimal. That's OK, as long as the heuristic is avoided in cases where it is near-pessimal.
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That's where calibration of heuristic decisions can be particularly critical - but it's also where refining your calibration can be hard.
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These multi-polar contexts are exactly where betting, or at least making clear claims to evaluate is useful. (See; https://weird.solar/inevitable-bets-versus-useful-bets-3182c6890aea … )
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