How large does can a social circle be before first names no longer suffice for identification? Scott, I'm looking at you.
Even worse than that; subgroup name popularity (geographic, socioeconomic) is going to be more concentrated than general population.
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It's an upper bound, yes. Could do better by getting some name datasets & resampling.
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I get 51 as the best estimate: http://www.gwern.net/Statistical%20notes#great-scott-personal-name-collisions-and-the-birthday-paradox …
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