so much of the intended point is that this expected utility argument applies even in intuition defying cases.
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Replying to @davidmanheim
The utilitarian argument seems to assume overconfidence that utilities can be calculated with great precision.
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Replying to @scottleibrand
I only partly agree. Yes, it can assume that, but it usually needn't. The bigger problem is assuming coherent utility at all.
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Replying to @davidmanheim @scottleibrand
But the argument isn't positive, it's normative. We should try to discover a coherent utility f(x).
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Replying to @MakerOfDecision @davidmanheim
We should positively model what humans value? Or change what humans value to make it coherent?
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Replying to @scottleibrand @davidmanheim
positively model a coherent version of what humans value as a prerequisite to survival; https://intelligence.org/files/CEV.pdf
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Replying to @MakerOfDecision @davidmanheim
Its not clear to me that such a model will be utilitarian: shut up and multiply may be inherently unfriendly.
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Replying to @scottleibrand @davidmanheim
Sure, but only because human morals may be inherently incoherent. (Otherwise, that isn't possible.)
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Replying to @MakerOfDecision @davidmanheim
It's also an epistemology issue, if calculating likelihood and multiplying leads to Pascal's mugging.
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Replying to @scottleibrand @MakerOfDecision
I find
@robinhanson's argument for weighting priors for pascal-like problems, based on claims, convincing.2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
Reference?
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I'm not finding it easily, but it's mentioned here; https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Pascal's_mugging …
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