It is critical to have effective heuristics for evaluating things you can't optimize yourself - but this is both an art AND a science.
When evaluating potential actions, some are local, requiring only local information. Others require evaluating things beyond your expertise.
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You should always be using outside view; 1) Ask others 2) Consider Value of Information 3) Try consulting an oracle; https://www.thegamecrafter.com/games/the-problem …
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