Macroeconomics is hard, & dumb, in the sense that there's too little data to reliably distinguish between models with different implications
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I mean, there's 70 yearly data points each, from a few (closely entangled) areas of the world since Bretton Woods? To do causal inference?!?
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@MakerOfDecision And, worse,little manipulated exogenous variation. Rubin says it clearly; http://www.ipc-undp.org/evaluation/aula1-causalidade/Rubin%20-%20Comments%20on%20Causal%20Inference.pdf …pic.twitter.com/zKsA751oOL
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