If something is evidence neither for or against a proposition, it must be uncorrelated. Otherwise, it is evidence, even if it's weak.
@argletargle I mean that you have a distribution P(P(Y)=y), which should narrow if you get evidence that doesn't change your estimate P(Y).
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@MakerOfDecision doesn't have to narrow, could widen. if you're thinking of it as future probability. or as knightian uncertainty. -
@argletargle@MakerOfDecision The only observations relevant to Y but not changing P(Y) must have multiple canceling effects, yes? - 1 more reply
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