If something is evidence neither for or against a proposition, it must be uncorrelated. Otherwise, it is evidence, even if it's weak.
@argletargle Those observations may not change the assessed *mean* probability, but they must at least change the distribution.
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@MakerOfDecision by distribution, you mean distribution over your future probabilities? -
@argletargle I mean that you have a distribution P(P(Y)=y), which should narrow if you get evidence that doesn't change your estimate P(Y). - 3 more replies
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