A thoughtful response to @nntaleb's dismissal, w/ fantastic point about tail risks and finite resources near the endhttps://twitter.com/sapinker/status/604019577589088256 …
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Replying to @MakerOfDecision
@MakerOfDecision I hate Taleb as much as anyone, but is it clear that the US's black swan thinking is wrong?2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @admittedlyhuman
@MakerOfDecision in retrospect it doesn't seem Iraq presented an existential threat, but nature of black swan prep is you're usually wrong.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @admittedlyhuman
@admittedlyhuman In the case of Iraq, at the highest levels, they knew (should have known) there was no existential threat at the time2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @MakerOfDecision
@MakerOfDecision in that case it seems unfair to blame blackswanning for the problem1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @admittedlyhuman
@admittedlyhuman I didn't intend to reference "worst case thinking", but rather that we need to do allocation under uncertainty across risks1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @MakerOfDecision
@MakerOfDecision sure, but, like, how? don't like him using left-wing politics in place of math as an argument1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
@admittedlyhuman No politics;.given any reasonable loss function, a efficient frontier approach to allocating across risks would do better.
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