@MakerOfDecision I hate Taleb as much as anyone, but is it clear that the US's black swan thinking is wrong?
A thoughtful response to @nntaleb's dismissal, w/ fantastic point about tail risks and finite resources near the endhttps://twitter.com/sapinker/status/604019577589088256 …
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@MakerOfDecision in retrospect it doesn't seem Iraq presented an existential threat, but nature of black swan prep is you're usually wrong. - 5 more replies
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As noted here, http://www.stats.org/is-the-risk-of-war-declining/ …, many types of evidence should be used to update our beliefs; insisting on one type is logically rude.
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