Food for thought. "You can't reason people out of positions they didn't reason themselves into." --Ben Goldacre.
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Replying to @suzywanalyst
.@SuzanneWaldman This is equivalent to the claim that Bayesian updating fails to work if people refuse to update, because they are certain.
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Replying to @MakerOfDecision
@MakerOfDecision Is Bayesian updating considered to be an ordinary, "folk" form of reasoning?2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @suzywanalyst
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@MakerOfDecision Here's something along lines of whether (some) people think in a Bayesian way. http://lesswrong.com/lw/56e/do_people_think_in_a_bayesian_or_popperian_way/ …1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
Replying to @suzywanalyst
@SuzanneWaldman That does discuss it, albeit very badly. There are many (much better!) discussions of the topic on that site.
2:09 PM - 4 Feb 2015
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