In cumulative terms, this is visible as a flattening out of the curve, typical of phenomena that are losing growth momentum:pic.twitter.com/E9c5gBVlR3
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Plotting Russia's daily gains in Ukraine, it becomes clear that the invasion is grinding to a halt. In the first 3 days, Russia occupied some 12,500 sqkm – comparable to the size of Lebanon or Connecticut – everyday. Two weeks later, the daily gain is down to next to nothing.pic.twitter.com/HHoYhLxAeI
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We calculated the size of territories by georeferencing and vectorizing a series of war map files available on
@Wikipedia. These maps are similar to those produced by@TheStudyofWar and others.Show this thread -
The plots provide quantitative data that reinforce the emerging interpretation of Russia’s behavior: With diminishing prospects of imposing a battlefied solution, it is clearly more interested in negotiations.
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Or if you want to be a little glib: Russia’s off-battlefield behavior is shaped by the shape of the curve!
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I'd be fascinated if you could do the same for UA recaptures.
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I'm sure that is coming as they become more statistically relevant. Until very recently Ukraine primarily engaged in spoiling counterattacks not intending to hold the ground they recaptured. That is changing though.
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What happened on day four?
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good question. what did happen on day 4?
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not sure I'd say Russia "occupied" that much area, holding a road doesn't equate to occupying an entire area. The Ukrainian attack at Berdyansk, sinking one ship and damaging others, shows how tenuous their so-called hold is in many places.
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This is true. One can discuss shades of control and what it actually amounts to.
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