Maggie AstorCompte certifié

We know at least 8 candidates have met the donor threshold: Biden, Buttigieg, Gabbard, Harris, O'Rourke, Sanders, Warren, Yang. The "at least" is important! Five other candidates (Booker, Castro, Klobuchar, Steyer, Williamson) are over 130k but we don't know by how much. 2/

It's impossible for anyone to have met the polling threshold yet, because only polls released after Sept. 13 (by qualifying pollsters) count, and that's only two national polls and one early-state poll. 3/

Five candidates — Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Sanders, and Warren — are consistently above 3% in polls. They'll officially qualify any day now. They just need one more poll to be released. 4/

O'Rourke and Yang have hit the 3% mark several times in the past couple months, so they're probably OK, but they'll have to wait a little longer to be sure. 5/

Others have a tougher climb. It's absolutely possible — Booker and Klobuchar sometimes hit 3%; Steyer has done it once — but harder. 6/

Castro has not exceeded 2% in any qualifying poll since early July. And nobody else has ever exceeded 2%. Could that change? Sure. But they'd need a significant shift in the dynamics of the race. 7/

I will say that — barring, again, a significant shift in the race — I would be surprised if the addition of the second polling option made a difference for anyone. Nobody has been polling at 5% in early states without also polling at 3% in general. 8/

UPDATE: Julián Castro's campaign has confirmed that they've reached 165,000 donors. So that's nine candidates who we know have met that threshold.