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So here's where we stand re: debate qualifications. To qualify for the November debate (date TBD), candidates will need: - 165,000 donors - 3% support in four qualifying polls OR 5% support in two qualifying polls in early-voting states (Iowa, NH, Nevada, SC) 1/
We know at least 8 candidates have met the donor threshold: Biden, Buttigieg, Gabbard, Harris, O'Rourke, Sanders, Warren, Yang. The "at least" is important! Five other candidates (Booker, Castro, Klobuchar, Steyer, Williamson) are over 130k but we don't know by how much. 2/
It's impossible for anyone to have met the polling threshold yet, because only polls released after Sept. 13 (by qualifying pollsters) count, and that's only two national polls and one early-state poll. 3/
Five candidates — Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Sanders, and Warren — are consistently above 3% in polls. They'll officially qualify any day now. They just need one more poll to be released. 4/
O'Rourke and Yang have hit the 3% mark several times in the past couple months, so they're probably OK, but they'll have to wait a little longer to be sure. 5/
Others have a tougher climb. It's absolutely possible — Booker and Klobuchar sometimes hit 3%; Steyer has done it once — but harder. 6/
Castro has not exceeded 2% in any qualifying poll since early July. And nobody else has ever exceeded 2%. Could that change? Sure. But they'd need a significant shift in the dynamics of the race. 7/
I will say that — barring, again, a significant shift in the race — I would be surprised if the addition of the second polling option made a difference for anyone. Nobody has been polling at 5% in early states without also polling at 3% in general. 8/
UPDATE: Julián Castro's campaign has confirmed that they've reached 165,000 donors. So that's nine candidates who we know have met that threshold.
UPDATE 2: Steyer also past 165,000 donors. That's 10.https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1176224412703571969 …
So let's update that full list. Candidates who have already met the new donor requirement: Biden Buttigieg Castro Gabbard Harris O'Rourke Sanders Steyer Warren Yang
Add Klobuchar to the list. Same situation as always, fwiw. The donor threshold is not going to be what keeps anyone off stage. Nobody, in any debate, has met the polling req but been thwarted by the donor req. It only goes the other way. The polls will determine who debates.
Campaigns don't like the donor threshold because it forces them to spend money recruiting small-dollar donors when they could be spending on other things. That's a real issue. But the donor threshold isn't keeping, and hasn't at any point kept, anyone offstage. That's all polls.
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