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  1. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    3. velj

    Philip Lane finally spoke up: "Services inflation is in the high ones now, so it's not the case that services inflation is dead." "We have persistent wage inflation now." "I think we at the ECB would agree that there should be more weight on housing" /1

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    Erik Hurst, and I are co-organizing the NBER SI Macro Data & Macro Models workshop on July 13-16. Call for papers attached. Submit here by March 18:

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Taipei off by 5.6% as first real sign of contagion to the global economy manifests.

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  4. 27. sij

    Yield curve control potentially coming to the US.

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  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    22. sij

    LISTEN "Now we are at $188trillion of debt. Households, businesses, governments are going into more debt because it is cheap to do so. If there is any reversal of interest rates that would cost trouble." "What we see is that low interest rates pushed more money into equities.."

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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    Odgovor korisniku/ci

    I don't believe in the sustainability of our debt and QE-driven global economy, but that doesn't mean that I believe in trying to short, because you will get killed that way. I believe in staying away from the paper markets and holding hard assets.

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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    🚨Does the credit supply shock have asymmetric effects on macroeconomic variables? By Valentina Colombo and Alessia Paccagnini on Economics Letters 🥳 Happy to share free download link for 50 days!! Enjoy it! 🤓

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  8. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    21. sij

    I’m clearly in the naughty children seats at the back of the hall for Donald Trump’s speech. Much tittering at his fact-free statements on the US economy “An economic boom [in the US] the likes of which the world has never seen before”

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    17. sij

    Latest on sees growth at a 7-year low of 1.0% in 2020 after 1.2% expansion in 2019; growth expected to be 0.7% in 2020 after preliminary reported expansion of 0.6% in 2019

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  10. 17. sij

    Given weak data, plus impending , if anything it would be prudent for the to cut later this month to provide support to the economy. Not to forget that the impending maturity from TFS drawdowns commence later this year.

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    16. sij
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  12. 16. sij

    As always, the devil is in the details. A really good thread on yesterday's German GDP data.

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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    16. sij

    Markets price redenomination risk differently depending on maturity. 2y spread (vs EA) still explained by over 40% by exit fears, while long-term investors (10y) have now largely priced them out. Using different methodology this confirms results by

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  14. 16. sij
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  15. 15. sij
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  16. 13. sij

    "Meanwhile, companies in trouble generally reduce hours before resorting to the painful task of cutting jobs. So this suggests an employment market which is having none of the broader impacts that would normally be predicted." There's a fair amount of weakness in the details.

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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    12. sij

    Some work-in-progress illustrations to gently introduce some concepts for 2-sample t-tests & how to think about p-values. Meant as teaching aids, not as a comprehensive standalone lesson. Caveats & assumptions abound. 🧵

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    In case you did miss it! The Bank of England’s balance sheet as a % of GDP since 1700.

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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    12. sij

    Some action on MPC looking likely pretty soon if data later this month disappoints via

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    11. sij

    🤫 Don't tell anyone, but it was the slowest year for NFP growth since 2011 (and there's a downward revision to come). (It's not the "best economy ever.) 🤫

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