Macro Charts

@MacroCharts

25 years in markets. Combine technical charts, proprietary models and historical regime comparisons. Global Macro, Momentum, Quantitative, Fund Manager, Trader.

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Vrijeme pridruživanja: travanj 2019.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    8. stu 2019.

    A special note to finish the week: This is my new report – a major update on what's happening in global Equities, two months in the making. Have a great weekend! The True Message of the Market (and Thinking for Yourself) New from Macro Charts blog:

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  2. prije 20 sati

    Year-to-date Daily Sentiment DSI lows: 52 52 51 30 17 13 13 Not a single print below 10, no sign of any real distress – and still too much excitement over daily headlines. Attached NDX reference chart with thoughts, and extreme patience.

    Poništi
  3. 4. velj

    P/C Ratio continues to reflect *significant* complacency, with no evidence the wall of worry has been rebuilt. After prior extreme sentiment peaks, Stocks took much longer than this to reset. Most traders are unprepared for this scenario – need extreme patience.

    Poništi
  4. 3. velj

    My Core Equity & Master Flow Models are deteriorating – but not enough to trigger a Buy signal. Historically this was an unstable condition, with very poor & highly volatile 1-3M returns. No change in view since mid-January – remaining extremely patient.

    Poništi
  5. 30. sij

    Aggregate dealer Gamma briefly turned negative on Monday, and remains close at ~3250. SG Derivs Strategy shows a history of prior sustained Gamma breaks – when dealers began hedging into falling markets, amplifying Volatility. Very important signal to watch closely here.

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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    23. sij

    Put/Call Ratio 50dma in the top 1.6% most overbought days in 20 years. Few days ever reached this level. In 7 out of 8 cases, Stocks topped immediately or had already peaked. Odds remain heavily skewed for a sharp correction into February-March.

    Poništi
  7. 29. sij

    Stocks don't just turn randomly – this is the picture of a textbook topping sequence: bottomed 2m ago (11/26), & topped 1/17, 1/22, last one standing 1/24. The signs were in place and weakness is now spreading – this will likely need weeks to repair.

    Poništi
  8. 28. sij

    Seller P&L Model (updated from Jan 8). Hit one of the most extreme levels in a decade and collapsed. Risk remains significant – BASE CASE look for reset to target zone (market takes all profits back + more). Long way until then – remain on high alert in the coming weeks.

    Poništi
  9. 28. sij

    The "Easy Streak" has finally ended. Stocks went a massive *74 days* without a 1% decline, tied for 4th longest in 20+ years (Oct 9 2018). Remember what I wrote – history was not kind to Stocks after things got this easy. Remain on high alert in coming weeks.

    Poništi
  10. 27. sij

    S&P Daily Sentiment (10dma) hit one of the highest levels ever and *turned down* last week. Odds remain heavily skewed for a sharp correction into February-March.

    Poništi
  11. 27. sij

    One of my most important Core Risk Models has *turned down* from a historic overbought condition. Since 2009, most signals led to sharp pullbacks or big corrections in Stocks. The next 1-2M remain at potential high risk of a big Tactical regime shift.

    Poništi
  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    22. sij

    Clean potential reversal in a number of key markets, most notably . Textbook look, but need confirmation. Meanwhile a number of Weeklys potentially setting up for a very big move -- higher, big down. Knife's edge approaching here, stay alert.

    Poništi
  13. 24. sij

    Happy Friday... and 73 days without a 1% decline in . Monday will tie for 4th longest in 20+ years (Oct 9 2018). After that only the "century" streaks remain... reminding us that markets are *masters* of the unthinkable. Have a nice weekend.

    Poništi
  14. 23. sij

    Put/Call Ratio 50dma in the top 1.6% most overbought days in 20 years. Few days ever reached this level. In 7 out of 8 cases, Stocks topped immediately or had already peaked. Odds remain heavily skewed for a sharp correction into February-March.

    Poništi
  15. 22. sij

    Clean potential reversal in a number of key markets, most notably . Textbook look, but need confirmation. Meanwhile a number of Weeklys potentially setting up for a very big move -- higher, big down. Knife's edge approaching here, stay alert.

    Poništi
  16. 22. sij

    rallied 14 out of 16 weeks, one of the longest streaks ever. Most prior streaks led to 10-15% corrections – and the few times the market kept going, it ultimately paid a heavy price. Respect the extreme momentum, but remain alert for reversals & signs of weakness in Tech.

    Poništi
  17. 22. sij

    Call Buy-to-Open Volume at record high for the 2nd week in a row. From : “Among everything we follow, this kind of behavior is by far the most troublesome and should be a major worry for anyone buying with a medium-term time frame. It just keeps getting crazier.”

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  18. 21. sij

    Sentiment (updated). DSI hit 92 last week – in the top *0.8%* of days since 2009. Similar spikes occurred *after* Stocks had broken out and rallied for months. In the majority of cases, Stocks were within days of a Short-term or Intermediate top.

    Poništi
  19. 21. sij

    One of my most important Core Risk Models is now *historically* overbought. Only a *few days* ever reached these extremes. Since 2009, most signals led to sharp pullbacks or big corrections in Stocks. The next 1-2M remain at potential high risk of a big Tactical regime shift.

    Poništi
  20. 17. sij

    Sentiment (updated). DSI printed 9% Bulls *three more* times this week, pushing the streak to 12 days at <=10% (today could be 13). This is one of the longest streaks ever – 6 out of 7 priors led to spikes in VIX over 20+ and pulled back 3-10% over several weeks.

    Poništi
  21. 16. sij

    Stock Analysts are upgrading "Price Targets" at a record pace (data starts 2010). Doesn't mean "Short everything", but certainly shows how far *expectations* have come since 2018 lows. Further, the 3M average has been this elevated only a few times, some led to big Volatility.

    Poništi

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