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Profil korisnika/ce M_R_Thomp
Michael Thompson
Michael Thompson
Michael Thompson
@M_R_Thomp

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Michael Thompson

@M_R_Thomp

Satellites, astrodynamics, weird orbits, spacecraft navigation, public lands, and mountaineering. I’m probably in New Mexico. Opinions/analyses are my own.

Shuree, New Mexico
Vrijeme pridruživanja: rujan 2017.

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    1. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 30. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      Something to potentially watch: Cosmos 2542, a Russian inspection satellite, has recently synchronized its orbit with USA 245, an NRO KH11. A thread:pic.twitter.com/LqvYiIYBMd

      51 reply 715 proslijeđenih tweetova 1.309 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    2. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 30. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      Prior to its most recent set of maneuvers, it was still in the same plane as USA 245, but its period was offset such that there were only relatively close passes every 11-12 days.

      1 reply 14 proslijeđenih tweetova 114 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    3. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 30. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      (Note that any two satellites in the same plane with offset periods will have passes like this at some regular cadence. It's enough to raise suspicion, but not prove anything.)

      12 proslijeđenih tweetova 112 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    4. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 30. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      The most recent close approach took place on January 21st, but instead of then drifting away as usual, Cosmos 2542 performed a series of maneuvers on the 20th, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd to match the period of USA 245.pic.twitter.com/jSMsytae4X

      31 proslijeđeni tweet 147 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    5. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 30. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      The periods are now less than 1 second apart, meaning that Cosmos 2542 is loitering around USA 245 in consistent view. As I'm typing this, that offset distance shifts between 150 and 300km depending on the location in the orbit.pic.twitter.com/C3fGKwfaLL

      24 proslijeđena tweeta 131 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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    6. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 30. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      Although the range oscillates, the relative orbit is phased such that the closest distance is when the satellites are in sunlight (i.e. visible to optical observation) and the furthest distance is when both satellites are in eclipse.

      12 proslijeđenih tweetova 113 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    7. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 30. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      The relative orbit is actually pretty cleverly designed, where Cosmos 2542 can observe one side of the KH11 when both satellites first come into sunlight, and by the time they enter eclipse, it has migrated to the other side.pic.twitter.com/zaEBZJhFaO

      31 proslijeđeni tweet 167 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    8. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 30. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      As long as Cosmos 2542 has the capability to perform a slew rate of 0.1 deg/sec, which is easily obtainable with modern attitude control systems, it has had the capability to observe USA 245 consistently for the past week.pic.twitter.com/U8C6Zz1BLQ

      1 reply 15 proslijeđenih tweetova 116 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 30. sij
      • Prijavi Tweet

      When 2542 was launched, Russia said that only Russian satellites would be inspected, but the only ones in this orbital plane are Cosmos 2523 (a previous inspection satellite), Cosmos 2543 (an earlier deployed sub-satellite), and Resurs-P1 (a commercial remote sensing satellite).

      13:16 - 30. sij 2020.
      • 20 proslijeđenih tweetova
      • 105 oznaka „sviđa mi se”
      • Rana Faheem Jake A. A. Robinson Sunil S Piotr Szmigielski Taylor Trofimczuk Joey Santana Rastro Aurora B :)
      1 reply 20 proslijeđenih tweetova 105 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        1. Novi razgovor
        2. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 30. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          While they are in the same plane, the passes are typical of any two satellites in the same plane: taking place at a distance of a few hundred km every few days. Not in consistent view, and the most recent maneuvers did nothing to improve the viewing geometry with any of these.

          1 reply 9 proslijeđenih tweetova 86 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        3. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 30. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Personally, I think the intelligence value of observations of optical spy satellites like this one are probably marginal. Their mirror dimensions are publicly known, and from there, it's just basic optics to calculate approximate capabilities.

          9 replies 11 proslijeđenih tweetova 140 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        4. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 30. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          This is all circumstantial evidence, but there are a hell of a lot of circumstances that make it look like a known Russian inspection satellite is currently inspecting a known US spy satellite.

          75 proslijeđenih tweetova 235 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        5. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 30. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          A pretty thorough look of the satellite catalog can't produce another potential target that looks as good as this in terms of the orbits and viewing geometry. (End)

          7 replies 12 proslijeđenih tweetova 118 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        6. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 31. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          A much needed follow up to this thread, as it ended up with much more exposure than I expected. The orbital elements for USA 245 were formulated and based on observations made by @HAMSATNL and shared through the SeeSat community. http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2020/index.html …

          7 proslijeđenih tweetova 64 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        7. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 31. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Additionally, if you look at the email threads there, @HAMSATNL, @cgbassa, Björn Gimle, and Ted Molczan have all been discussing a possible relationship between Cosmos 2542/2543 and USA 245 during January.

          1 reply 5 proslijeđenih tweetova 51 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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        8. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 31. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          They've all been doing this kind of analysis for longer than me, and have been very helpful for myself and others who have only been spinning up on satellite tracking in the more recent years.

          3 proslijeđena tweeta 46 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        9. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 1. velj
          • Prijavi Tweet

          And probably one last set of updates for a while, as @coastal8049 and @HAMSATNL have both provided additional observations on USA 245. The original analysis used the same orbit for USA 245 throughout because it was the only one I had on hand.

          1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 9 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        10. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 1. velj
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Michael Thompson je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceScott Tilley

          The orbit for USA 245 now uses: 1. An orbit estimate from January 31st from @HAMSATNL: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2020/0008.html … 2. An orbit estimate from January 20th posted by @coastal8049: https://twitter.com/coastal8049/status/1219889619187027968?s=20 … 3. An orbit estimate from HAMSATNL from January 28th posted to his website.

          Michael Thompson je dodan/na,

          Scott Tilley @coastal8049
          USA 245 made a single pass appearance on S-band today. With the appearance of USA 186 and USA 290 that only leaves USA 224 of the KH-11s that didn't show during the NRO march on SGLS 9. Here's a photo of USA 245 shortly after launch flaring! pic.twitter.com/9dKpNz3z1E
          Prikaži ovu nit
          1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 11 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        11. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 1. velj
          • Prijavi Tweet

          The updated range between Cosmos 2542 and USA 245 is essentially the same as shown before up to the final state update on 1/28. Then, you see the range jump up to over 1000km. Still in view, but much further away. Cosmos 2542 didn't make a maneuver, so it looks like USA 245 did.pic.twitter.com/GPAHOSTMKE

          1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 11 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        12. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 1. velj
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Some initial analysis estimates that USA 245 made its maneuver on January 23rd, just 1 day after Cosmos 2542 synchronized its period, but with sparse state estimates like these, it's hard to make a solid match on just one epoch.

          1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 14 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        13. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 1. velj
          • Prijavi Tweet

          But to sum it up, with the additional observations, we can see that Cosmos 2542 probably only was close to USA 245 for a few days at most before 245 made a maneuver to start to drift away.

          0 proslijeđenih tweetova 15 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        14. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 1. velj
          • Prijavi Tweet

          The orbits are still similar enough that they'll be in view of each other for at least a month, but at a much greater distance. Unless, of course, we see more maneuvers. A plot of the projected range through Feb is below.pic.twitter.com/Fb9GIUviTg

          1 reply 3 proslijeđena tweeta 13 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        15. Michael Thompson‏ @M_R_Thomp 1. velj
          • Prijavi Tweet

          In the open source community, we'll all be keeping our eyes on USA 245, Cosmos 2542, and (but wait, there's more) Cosmos 2543, a small subsatellite that was deployed earlier in the mission.

          4 proslijeđena tweeta 44 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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