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If significant numbers die b/c China coerced countries into failing to protect themselves, this will backfire in a major way. Like many examples of Beijing's overreaching, this is near-guaranteed to produce resentment vs China and the national gov'ts that don't stand up to ithttps://twitter.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1223902501554003968 …
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This powerful thread + discussion raise an issue critical to strategic competition: manpower & personnel. In an infowars/AI, distributed and "mission command" future, hyper-talented leaders will be at a premium. Policies that force many out will be huge competitive disadvantagehttps://twitter.com/mikejason73/status/1221818734232457218 …
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Brilliant
@martinwolf_ essay on Brexit notes risk of scapegoating common to populist agendas: "The big failings of the UK"--eg low investment--"have nothing to do with EU membership." When Brexit doesn't solve them, where does UK turn? https://www.ft.com/content/fbcd92a4-40fa-11ea-a047-eae9bd51ceba … via@financialtimesHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
For anyone following Chinese information operations: A powerful Freedom House report offers a superb overview of Beijing's growing activities. I think the evidence of effectiveness is more mixed (as w/Russia) but this is a great primerhttp://bit.ly/37sWm9o
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Great argument from
@DrJMankoff: "Russia does seem to be entering a transition period, one in which it has little incentive to exacerbate an already poisonous relationship with the US." A modest but real chance to seek stabilizing measures in rivalryhttps://thehill.com/opinion/international/479423-a-new-era-in-russia-will-allow-america-to-rethink-its-policy#.XitpZsXLGUU.twitter …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Reminds me of April 2003: See! All the forecasts of disaster in Iraq were wrong! The real cost of strategic errors unfolds over years. Odd, too, amid new evidence we were a hair's breadth from casualties + escalation. Apparently some warnings were validhttps://www.nationalreview.com/2020/01/us-iran-tensions-soleimani-strike-alarmists-were-wrong-about-strike/ …
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Holding tightly to a "right" to meddle in other societies--at the cost of failing to mitigate autocratic states' dangerous disruptive activities within US and other democratic societies --would be a strategic own goal of catastrophic proportions
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As an important side benefit, such a shift would temper the elements of US policy most threatening to Russia and China. A long way to go and trust is an issue--but this could open the way to norms on societal non-interference that would promote US domestic security
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For
@PatPorter76 and@DanDePetris and other restrainers: Really nice piece by@DenisonBe that provides an ideal first principle of restraint. We can debate dropping alliances, offshore balancing etc, but this ought to be the starting point--no forcible regime change.https://twitter.com/DenisonBe/status/1217817738376368128 …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
3/3 Then, too, will China let the US "bring the hammer down" on NK? Small amounts of $ will be enough to keep NK afloat. Much more persuasive thesis is that maximum pressure is failing across the board--and risks tumbling into escalation and warhttps://wapo.st/2G37Nsk?tid=ss_tw …
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2/3 A country w/severe threat perceptions gets nukes to ward off risks and refuses denuke demands--but *will* abandon them when threatened w/economic extinction? And to buy this policy the US risks ties w/allies via use of bitterly hated secondary sanctions?
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"For strategic and domestic political reasons North Korea will never voluntarily forfeit its nuclear weapons"; therefore "maximum pressure could be the only path to denuclearizing North Korea." This claim flies in the face of all current evidence. 1/3https://warontherocks.com/2020/01/maximum-pressure-made-permeable-the-trouble-with-washingtons-north-korea-sanctions/ …
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Agree--but the US will not live with this trajectory forever. Choices to stop it are narrowing, but if the trend continues, at *some* point a US president will see a briefing and say, "We cannot live w/that." Lesson: imperfect arms control = better than waiting for that momenthttps://twitter.com/johncarlbaker/status/1218258890653040640 …
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Right, + form of restraint: Limit our actions to equivalent of R2P Pillar 1 + 2--global norms and help when asked--and not Pillar 3, forcible imposition. Country in transition to democ asks for aid, we're all about it; democ in econ pain, we help. But we don't remake societieshttps://twitter.com/PatPorter76/status/1218088036501786624 …
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2/2 A demand for legislative deliberation on war isn't perfect--Congress authorized Iraq. But we've learned. And this habit will make the US *more* credible and secure: More committed to its values, more judicious, less likely to waste strategic capital on half-baked adventures
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An inspiring bipartisan statement: "Rather than debating and voting on present conflicts, Congress habitually acquiesces to the executive branch’s actions. This must change; the Constitution demands it, and the people we represent deserve it." Amen. 1/2https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/16/7-house-reps-oped/?tid=ss_tw …
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Of course, ultra hawks do not *expect* the terms to be accepted. Just as w/Iraq in 2002, such demands justify "maximum pressure" which = permanent confrontation and serve goal of regime change. If the target actually accepts many conditions (eg JCPOA), the reaction is horrorhttps://twitter.com/JBWolfsthal/status/1217914320518033418 …
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Indeed; and in spirit, it's the sort of multilateral approach that is more likely to shape China's behavior over the long-term: Deepen and strengthen the "rest of the world" rules Beijing has to play by. Efforts like this, not bilateral trade wars, should be the playbookhttps://twitter.com/AbeDenmark/status/1217917514396643330 …
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A brilliant, counter-conv. wisdom thread by
@scrawnya. If true it *might* suggest that Putin would be in the market for deals to temper int'l disputes and create a safe + stable context for this path. A narrow opening for a new regional security dialogue? Could be tested, anywayhttps://twitter.com/scrawnya/status/1217921584389861381 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Interesting elite survey. Confirms that China confronts biting dilemma between achieving hegemony and causing backlash. But in a world of hedgers, the US needs to be wary of overly-aggressive confrontation. We risk being tagged as cause of regional competition; leave that to PRChttps://twitter.com/GregPoling/status/1217923735858139137 …
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