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Michael Levitt
@MLevitt_NP2013
US COVID19 will be done in 4 weeks with a total reported death below 170,000. How will we know it is over? Like for Europe, when all cause excess deaths are at normal level for week. Reported COVID19 deaths may continue after 25 Aug. & reported cases will, but it will be over.
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Michael Levitt
@MLevitt_NP2013
Thanks so much. Total population and totally annual natural deaths very similar to EuroMOMO area. Right now there are overall 414 reported deaths/million in US. If same as Europe, US about 80% complete. Certainly hope this is true and US saturates at no more than 170,000 deaths. twitter.com/czr111/status/…
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Brandon
@DMBKC85
When you say over, what do you mean? You indicate cases and deaths will continue... how is that over? Seriously, just asking, not being a jerk or sarcastic.
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Denilson Nastacio
@dnastacio
We keep talking about only one number in isolation, cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. Not dying but developing a long term disability is not the same as going back to a pre-Covid19 baseline. This prediction has traces of "it is just the flu".
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Dan Munn
@Dan_Munn76
Every infection/disease has potential for longer term implications. These implications normally present in the population who are most at risk ie those with comorbidity and age as a factor. I have not seen any studies for Covid-19 that put long-term disability as anything (1)
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PLC
@Humble_Analysis
All cause mortality returned to normal levels in mid-June. It looks as though they may have recently returned to slightly above normal, but nothing significant. In other words, Covid has been over for more than a month, already.
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Keith Amburgey
@KeithAmburgey
It's over when the general public don't care anymore, the science is only tangential to this. So maybe a few more months for ppl to get over panic porn media induced PTSD.
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