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Michael Levitt
@MLevitt_NP2013
Paper "Predicting the Trajectory of Any COVID19 Epidemic From the Best Straight Line" with
@andreascaie
&
@Cescoxonta
in online as version 1 at medrxiv.org/content/10.110 . Below are final plateau predictions for Peru total cases and Brazil total deaths.
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Michael Levitt
@MLevitt_NP2013
Ivor, our analysis, awaiting approval at MedXRiv, forecasts the plateau total number of cases in Peru and deaths in Brazil. Here I post the forecast plateau number of cases in Peru as 478,000 and the forecast number of deaths in Brazil as 98,000. Details to follow ASAP. twitter.com/FatEmperor/sta…
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Tonbar
@Tonbar0
Thank you Professor Levitt, for being a ray of light and reason amongst the hysteria and anti-science we’ve seen in this pandemic. Will read immediately!
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JM Pienaar
@PienaarJm
"It is evident from our data analysis that the growth of a COVID19 epidemic does not follow an exponential growth law even in the very first days, but instead its growth is slowing down exponentially with time." How do you explain this:
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Steve Bocska
@SBocska
Excellent and valuable work. Any suggestions on how these findings can be usefully applied to predict "cases" when those numbers are so highly dependant on a country's testing strategies and methods?
aldani
@aldanibcn
"The existence of invisible cases of individuals [...] not counted as confirmed cases may explain the non-exponential behavior of COVID-19: the known cases cannot easily find people to infect as the hidden invisible cases have already infected them". Maybe it would be more 1/2
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joy is essential
@enjoylife3D
Can you give us some advice here in South Carolina? We seem to be entering our outbreak, cases skyrocketing and percent positive hitting 20% today. It is nerve wracking!