Michael Levitt

@MLevitt_NP2013

Stanford Prof. of Biophysics, Cambridge PhD and DSc, 2013 Chemistry Nobel Laureate (complex systems), FRS & US National Academy member, I code well for my age.

United States
med.stanford.edu/levitt.html
Joined September 2016
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Jul 3

    GOMPERTZ, CURVE-FITS & FORECASTS 1a) Gompertz is seen in almost all first outbreaks. …… 1b) Gompertz is Driven by a Straight Line. … 1c) Gompertz Exponential Growth Factor Sensitive to Artifacts

    GOMPERTZ, CURVE-FITS & FORECASTS 1) Gompertz is Universal. 1a) Gompertz is seen in almost all first outbreaks. … 1b) Gompertz is Only Growth Function Where Growth is Driven by a Straight Line. An artillery shell not a rocket...
    17 replies 23 retweets 73 likes
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  2. 3 hours ago

    Involved with Israel & Sweden since Mar-20, I add comparison of vaccination. Both are now highly vaccinated, IL with Pfizer (mRNA), SE with AstraZeneca (Adenovirus DNA). IL over 60% level 90 days earlier. Should we worry SE has Delta wave ahead? Is Pfizer == AstraZeneca?

    7 replies 4 retweets 14 likes
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  3. 3 hours ago

    Fortunately age-adjusted excess death in Israel for the 75 weeks from 1-Jan-20 to 6-Jun-21 is almost as small as that in Sweden (<2% of natural death in 75 weeks) Economic, social, medical & educational cost to Israel likely higher than to Sweden. Does anyone have good data?

    6 replies 10 retweets 58 likes
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  4. 3 hours ago

    Please note that the two translation are automatic. I give independent results from Microsoft and Google. The original is in Hebrew. Taking this opportunity to rejoice in machine translation. It it so worthwhile to get used to its quirks.

    2 replies 3 retweets 21 likes
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  5. 5 hours ago

    As someone who broke the news to Israeli leaders on Sweden’s handling of COVID-19 in Mar. 2020, I am so distressed to be reading this now When will Homo Sapiens realize that we can never stop a tiny virus & re-engineer human biology by force not smarts?

    27 replies 77 retweets 310 likes
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  6. Retweeted
    13 hours ago
    Replying to

    You are welcome! Please do not forget the teeny tiny wee little difference in CFR that arises also from the difference in testing. I am referring to messagging like this

    1 reply 5 retweets 14 likes
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  7. 13 hours ago

    Thanks so much. Have now done a more detailed study of this and will post soon. Really interesting. Most specially The Netherlands & Italy, which I missed out below. My 21 day estimate for USA daily cases to peak now supported by data & extrapolation.

    Replying to @EricTopol
    cc:
    4 replies 4 retweets 21 likes
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  8. 13 hours ago

    I know how small they are. I suspected inhalation oxygen is not affected. What about exhalation of carbon dioxide? Really have no opinion one way or the other. I do know from personal experience that if you wear glasses, masks make it more dangerous to walk down stairs…

    Replying to @MLevitt_NP2013
    Do you know how small oxygen and carbon dioxide molecules are? If you think virons are small……
    15 replies 7 retweets 66 likes
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  9. 14 hours ago

    Are the experts convinced that this study is flawed? What about the reviewers who accepted the paper? Do masks not affect the level of oxygen in our blood? Self-tests with an O2 dosimeter seem to show a reduction. Need someone to repeat this properly.

    26 replies 46 retweets 151 likes
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  10. Aug 7

    The exact same plot for the USA. We deliberately leave off the last six weeks of data to ensure that late reporting delays are minimized. This is the same 72 week period as shown for Sweden.

    16 replies 40 retweets 123 likes
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  11. Aug 6

    We can only accurately know all-cause excess death. From week 01 of 2020 to week 30 of 2021 (72 weeks), the net excess death in Sweden over that predicted using mortality in 2017, 2028 & 2019 is now 385-360=15 deaths out of 125,000 natural deaths. So a small burden of death.

    16 replies 82 retweets 200 likes
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  12. Aug 6

    I find the similarity of the time-course of daily Delta Variant confirmed cases per million in France, US & Israel compelling. Please follow it with me using at Checked equivalent data for US states: major outbreaks seem to be in sync.

    10 replies 19 retweets 63 likes
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  13. Aug 6

    Do any of my favorite experts know why Sweden seems to have better immunity against COVID-19 than almost any other country, including Sweden’s Scandinavian neighbors? Is there a remote possibility that letting the virus spread naturally led to lasting natural herd immunity?

    132 replies 557 retweets 1,561 likes
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  14. Aug 5

    Links please.

    Replying to @MLevitt_NP2013
    "sign of societal problems". Yes. Look at raw HHS data per US state/per day. Look at non-covid beds/ICU as trending from 1/1/2020. These are folks effected by the economics of lockdowns and total failure of state.
    7 replies 5 retweets 12 likes
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  15. Aug 5

    A Golden Oldie that has aged so well.

    COVID19 is a contrast agent like that used in microscopy. It emphasizes and brings into sharp focus the features of our World that were always there. Not a pretty sight. We urgently need better AI so next time we can say “Siri, Alexa, Google: Should I panic?” & believe the reply.
    10 replies 8 retweets 61 likes
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  16. Aug 5

    Indeed. Just that. Still most COVID-19 deaths are people over 65-years old. It seems that younger natural death is a sign of societal problems. As I wrote a very long time ago “COVID19 is a contrast agent”. It reveals the hidden cracks in our World.

    8 replies 15 retweets 76 likes
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  17. Aug 5

    Not sure. Current outbreak did not start from zero cases. Cases from prior outbreaks seriously contaminate the data hiding Gompertz behavior. Same thing was true of Delta in India at end of April. Then Gompertz growth appeared allowing good prediction.

    3 replies 7 retweets 25 likes
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  18. Aug 5

    From our analysis, best predictor of excess death in past 17 months since 1-Mar-20, the COVID19 Era, is unexpected. It is the NATURAL 2017-2019 mortality of the under-65 year olds. The natural mortality of those over 65 is much less correlated to excess death. Want to see it?

    Replying to @joe_sill @MLevitt_NP2013
    As Wilkinson shows, inequality is correlated with numerous health and social pathologies, so controlling for it avoids the question to some extent. The big Covid stratifiers are age at the individual level, inequality at the state (likely country) level.
    8 replies 17 retweets 58 likes
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  19. Aug 5

    What do non-experts like , & think of this statement? What does objective & professional data analysis tell us? 'Vaccines work, no doubt about it': Israel’s top COVID expert answers your questions

    40 replies 23 retweets 103 likes
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  20. Aug 5

    Can any one show clear correlation between NPI or other restrictions & reduced COVID-19 cases anywhere? I keep trying & failing. We really need to know this to deal better with future pandemics.

    People were worried cases would spike further when the UK lifted almost all remaining restrictions in July. The opposite happened. We must acknowledge that restrictions aren't all that effective in Western countries. (Except Australia, who just entered their 6th lockdown)
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    81 replies 245 retweets 848 likes
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  21. Aug 5

    Recent outbreaks look similar in terms of daily cases per million on a log scale. UK, Spain & Portugal have peaked. France & Italy are close to peaking. Very similar, Israel & US, still rising at accelerating rate. Peaking expected in coming 21 days.

    32 replies 47 retweets 157 likes
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