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4/ I think Netflix should do something similar. In the US, sub count has clearly slowed. NFLX had ~61mn paid subs in 2019 and added ~2.8mn subs vs. 5.8mn in 2018. With ~125mn US households, I think slowing sub growth is a given (even w/o competition).pic.twitter.com/6dpzUn3Waa
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This graphic... Yikes. It was silly that
$AAPL was ever 11X P/E, 9X ex-Cash (who cares if numbers go down 10% at that point), but$AAPL's run the last few months has been INSANE.pic.twitter.com/uK9QhdAgb9
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People like SBC more than I thought... Software universe maybe a quarter stale. This is from MS, I'm not making this myself! Also per MS, Hedge Funds call to find out when 1) generalists want in software (time to get out), 2) investors ask about SBC (time to get back in).pic.twitter.com/X39TlDBD8p
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/10 This is an old AAPL Svcs model it needs updates, but GOOGL pmt to AAPL potentially represents ~29% of total AAPL svcs revs. And it is growing faster than overall svcs (30% vs. 20%). And it is v. high margin. Assuming 100% margins, it represents 22% of AAPL's total EBIT.pic.twitter.com/HHGBegXYXT
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As of 3Q19, this yielded wildly different TTM FCF. Definition #1 - $23.5bn Def #2 - $14.6bn Def #3 - $10.5bnpic.twitter.com/BHPo7rPEwx
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Note that AMZN's under performance is only recent. Among the FANGMA names, the ones with the LEAST amount of earnings did the best and only in 2019 is EPS being rewarded.pic.twitter.com/HWwAsYx83R
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Great episode. Love hearing from both these guys. The one thing I would pick at is the datapoint from the ATVI 2015 Investor Day slide misses 1)
$s/minute and time spent are inversely related. People do more of it because its cheap. NFLX is cheaper than gaming. 2) hardware costspic.twitter.com/pKMOUV0hla
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Last point on Nintendo and how it could be a much bigger company. Nintendo just opened a store in Kyoto Japan, similar to the one in NYC. Nintendo Merchandise is vastly undermonetized. See Mario here on a list of 25 highest grossing franchises where merchandise <10% of revs.pic.twitter.com/HMIjnJly3g
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The PS4 installed base is >100mn at this point vs. Switch at ~36mn and Xbox ~40mn. What is insane is the attach rates for Nintendo games is incredibly High.pic.twitter.com/UaaOx7MkRl
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Why is 3P important? Nintendo/Microsoft/Sony do the hard work to build the platform, to build the ecosystem and ultimately generate platform fees. These are VERY profitable. ON a $60 game, Nintendo takes ~$18 for a digital sale and ~$9 for physical copy.pic.twitter.com/9etR6XSd6J
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Nintendo vs. Sony PlayStation Strategy. Nintendo sells 1P games to make money. Sony sells 1P games to sell PS4s which generates money through 3P games. Very evident in the pricing of Zelda BoTW (2017) and God of War (2018)/Horizon (2017). Note, the discount is for Black Friday.pic.twitter.com/Iajpg3Jvkw
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When GRUB acquired Eat24, its NYC share was bigger and it wasn't an issue then. Not sure what that means for future potential mergers.pic.twitter.com/ebDEhbKllU
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I'm guessing Forbes got some flack for this article?pic.twitter.com/RFNjDe3FrL
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To be fair... I've seen all of those on bulge bracket bank research reports...pic.twitter.com/TOTzUkFWsh
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First 8 Twitter ads on my feed. Some of them are theoretically for me (finance and tech, def not The Voice or anything with Arod) but if any of these advertisers are looking for performance advertising and not brand advertising, their ROI will be very low. At least with me.pic.twitter.com/WXcItvMRwy
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