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MForstater's profile
Maya Forstater
Maya Forstater
Maya Forstater
@MForstater

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Maya Forstater

@MForstater

Business and sustainable development. Accountability. Tax. Feminist test case. Media: Tom Gardner at Slater & Gordon 0207 657 1690 press@slatergordon.co.uk

https://medium.com/@MForstater
hiyamaya.net
Joined September 2008

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    1. Brina Seidel‏ @BrinaSeidel 6 Apr 2018
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      Replying to @JustinSandefur @MForstater

      This is something we thought about a lot and couldn’t come to any firm conclusions on. In part, that’s because WID by necessity aggregates up to the region level very early on when putting together a global distribution, making it hard to see where countries end up.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Brina Seidel‏ @BrinaSeidel 6 Apr 2018
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      Replying to @BrinaSeidel @JustinSandefur @MForstater

      For reference, here’s the regional composition of each part of the global distribution using WID’s data, comparable to Table A2 in our paper. Not totally sure what to make of it.pic.twitter.com/c0yoUBTfeB

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Brina Seidel‏ @BrinaSeidel 6 Apr 2018
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      Replying to @BrinaSeidel @JustinSandefur @MForstater

      I wouldn’t say that you should trust survey data for the global middle *because* surveys are generally good at capturing the middle– that section of the graph has the top of the dist for poor countries, the bottom of the dist for rich countries, and the middle for others.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Justin Sandefur‏ @JustinSandefur 6 Apr 2018
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      Replying to @BrinaSeidel @MForstater

      Good point. Though... wouldn't this bias things in the opposite direction? (Lower growth in survey estimate in that range)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Brina Seidel‏ @BrinaSeidel 6 Apr 2018
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      Replying to @JustinSandefur @MForstater

      Not really- WID's top income data is so detailed (0.001% of population) that the ultra-rich in any country, the type of people we think are missing from surveys, end up at the top of the global distribution.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Brina Seidel‏ @BrinaSeidel 6 Apr 2018
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      Replying to @BrinaSeidel @JustinSandefur @MForstater

      So while we have the richest 10% of people from Cote d'Ivoire somewhere in the global middle, I'd bet WID has the richest 0.01% of people from CIV in the global top 1%. WID probably also has the 90-95th pctile of CIV in the global middle but they didn't experience crazy growth.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Justin Sandefur‏ @JustinSandefur 6 Apr 2018
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      Replying to @BrinaSeidel @MForstater

      Just out of curiosity, do you know where the bottom of the top 1% in India and China (according to WID) fall in the global distribution?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Brina Seidel‏ @BrinaSeidel 6 Apr 2018
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      Replying to @JustinSandefur @MForstater

      Mean income for p99.0 to p99.1 in 2013 was $316,020 for China and $1,334,763 for India in PPP. That puts the Chinese closest to the global p99.8 and the Indians closest to the global p99.97.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Brina Seidel‏ @BrinaSeidel 6 Apr 2018
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      Replying to @BrinaSeidel @JustinSandefur @MForstater

      But I'm comparing country data from their API to global data from the WIR replication data and I'm not totally sure that's right given the regional aggregation process. Looking at the table above though their data has 22% (!) of the global top 1% as Asian.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Justin Sandefur‏ @JustinSandefur 6 Apr 2018
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      Replying to @BrinaSeidel @MForstater

      Thanks. Ok, so to your original point, omission of the top 1% in the countries big enough to matter couldn't really be affecting the middle of that graph. So... I'm back to Maya's default bias in favor of trusting survey data more.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Maya Forstater‏ @MForstater 8 Apr 2018
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      Replying to @JustinSandefur @BrinaSeidel

      Maybe this chart shows an elephant morphing into a loch ness monster? @wid_inequality has distributed nat accounts for individual countries in blue, red, green lines. Getting to yellow involves lots of merging & rescaling across regions @gabriel_zucman @ChancelLucas @BrankoMilanpic.twitter.com/ganEmur1X8

      10:45 AM - 8 Apr 2018
      • 1 Retweet
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      • World Inequality Lab | WID.world Ben Taylor
      2 replies 1 retweet 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Branko Milanovic‏ @BrankoMilan 8 Apr 2018
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          Replying to @MForstater @JustinSandefur and

          Informal sector is included in surveys. Most (I think practically all) of the difference btw WID and L-K data comes not from the top 1% but from the assumption on how are undistributed corporate profits allocated across the distribution.

          3 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
        3. Lucas Chancel‏ @lucas_chancel 9 Apr 2018
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          Replying to @BrankoMilan @MForstater and

          Actually, it is the use of tax data at the top (rather than assumptions on undistributed profits) that explain the bulk of the difference between WID data and survey data, at least in China, India, Brazil. For details see for instance http://wir2018.wid.world/part-1.html  (below box 1.1)

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. Branko Milanovic‏ @BrankoMilan 8 Apr 2018
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          Replying to @MForstater @JustinSandefur and

          People also forget (or pay no attention) to the fact that the fiscal top in China includes only 0.5% of _urban_ households, in India and Russia about 1%. So 99% of data comes from the surveys (which are then "augmented" through other assumptions).

          1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
        3. Lucas Chancel‏ @lucas_chancel 9 Apr 2018
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          Replying to @BrankoMilan @MForstater and

          In India now about 7% of the adult population files tax returns. That said for emerging countries @BrankoMilan is right, WID data largely relies on surveys for the bottom 90% or 99%. Using tax data for the remaining 10% or 1% yields estimates more coherent with national accounts.

          0 replies 2 retweets 2 likes
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