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The Elephant Chart Revisited: Homi Kharas & @BrinaSeidel @BrookingsEcon take a fresh look at @BrankoMilan @ChristophLakner chart of global income growth and how it has been interpreted https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/workingpaper114-elephantchartrevisited.pdf …pic.twitter.com/f4XgRiKr0Q
They note it has often been misunderstood that each part of the elephant represents economic lives of ppl in a place. The countries change e.g. 'tail' in 1988 involved China, India, other Asia by 2008 mainly India, Nigeria, other Africa (nor is the trough the Trump/brexit base)
They find that the sharp droop in the elephant’s original tail shows not that the poorest saw little income growth, but that more poorer countries had survey data in 2008 compared to 1988pic.twitter.com/V2o5zeP49E
Updating for 2011 purchasing power parity they find the tail and the trough rise and trunk gets shorter. i.e. challenging notions that the poor left behind, the fairly well off excluded from two decades of growth, and showing less dramatic growth by the global one percentpic.twitter.com/KSj1zo0RQ1
Taking a later set of years to include the recession the shape of the elephant changes again. More growth in bottom half, and the trunk has disappeared.pic.twitter.com/dv3FX7SRMV
They compare elephant and Loch Ness monster charts (from @wid_inequality ) https://www.cgdev.org/blog/chart-week-1-elephant-graph-flattening-out … - they note that Nessie captures income before taxes & transfers, & excludes informal sector not in national accounts. Nelly is consumption (but surveys bad at capturing top 1%)pic.twitter.com/qHDYbQPltH
Finally they redraw graph to reflect the Q 'what happened to incomes of ppl who started off in each situation'. Its a whole different shape: sloping down w no tail or trunk - in general income growth of ppl who were poorer at the start of the 1990s more rapid than those richerpic.twitter.com/760q90r3No
They find the primary narrative is one of convergence: Poorer countries, and the lower income groups in those countries, have grown most rapidly. The data do not support theidea that the poorest people are being left behind, nor that the richest are taking all the income gains.
Definitely thought the “torso” was the ear
Nah I’m with you, surely that’s the head of the elephant and an ear. I have no idea how that would be a torso!
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