The point of eliciting guesses is 1. To aid understanding of what lies between disagreements and 2. To provide benchmarks so to people know if evidence emerges that contradicts their priors.
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(.... obviously these calculations will change if we change the commodity price for the OT model, or if we look at a different mine with different costs of production....) (/9)
What I think it shows is that the intuition that loss years are a good indicator sign of profit shifting does not hold up (although as @hselftax says several years of losses demand explanation) (10/10)
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Great answer! So counting binaries misses ways of deflating profits whilst holding the pattern of 0 or 1s over the years fixed. I'm totally convinced counting false or true loss years is a poor measure and I hadn't thought of that, so thanks
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However, the tweet I initially responded to said (something like) 'I agree that when a mine reports a loss it's not always fake' so the question how often fake remains, even if a poor way of assessing the overall extent of profit shifting, as you have explained.
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