Nah its just the wrong question. Eg a mining Co can have legitimate zero profits in a year, but might still be be overstating costs (... which will have impact on taxes at some point down the road).
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God (who sounds a bit like
@ali_readhead ) would tell us that all depends on commodity prices, costs etc… Lets assume there is profit shifting. Say the management fee should be cut in half and interest reduced by 3 percentage points. (Disclaimer: I just making these numbers up)
If we make these adjustments it raises pre tax profit by 70% over the lifecycle of the mine (i.e. if OO base case represents what the company declared and the adjusted case represents the true ALP it means 60% of profits were being shifted) (6/)
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BUT the pattern of years of loss and profit doesn’t look all that different. This time there are 26 loss years, and the project become profitable a year earlier. So the answer in this case is there is a 4% prevalence of loss years due to profit shifting.pic.twitter.com/s66Uv8vTpJ
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Which is why I don’t think its all that useful a question – because it turns the answer that the Transfer Pricing Deity is 100% certain that the company is shifting 60% of its profits away into the statement that there is 4% chance that any given loss year is not a real loss year
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