Looping in @DanielGMule @liescaesens as Congo experts
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Replying to @ali_readhead @hselftax and
Maya Forstater Retweeted Paddy Carter
Looping in
@RadleyBen since its his article (threads start here https://twitter.com/CarterPaddy/status/979332827455148032?s=19 …)Maya Forstater added,
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Replying to @MForstater @ali_readhead and
Thanks Maya. Yes headline is a bit click bait, but I didn't write that bit : ) TP is relevant to royalties if exports undervalued (was one of Marysse & Tshimanga's findings). Accept point that losses not ALWAYS indicative of profit shifting.
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Replying to @RadleyBen @MForstater and
What's your rough guess, percentage of observed years in which a mine reports a loss, it is a genuine loss (i.e. NOT profit shifting?)
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Replying to @CarterPaddy @RadleyBen and
I don't think there's a simple rule of thumb - you've got to run the numberspic.twitter.com/OiXRZF611p
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Replying to @MForstater @RadleyBen and
You can still guess at the prevalence!
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Replying to @ali_readhead @CarterPaddy and
Nope me neither Paddy! I think the point is 0 profit in early years looks OK. Gets more
as mine gets older. But then commodity price volatility etc can push back into losses. And '0 tax bill' may not mean losses but result of carried interest as w Oyu Tolgoi2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @MForstater @ali_readhead and
Yes yes yes it's all very complicated but 1. If the difference between genuine losses and profit shifting is so fundamentally unknowable then the whole endeavour is meaningless and we might as well never speak of it again and ...
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Replying to @CarterPaddy @MForstater and
... there's nothing wrong with taking an average over a heterogeneous population, nor can I believe you literary have no prior concerning the prevalence of bad practice.
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Nah its just the wrong question. Eg a mining Co can have legitimate zero profits in a year, but might still be be overstating costs (... which will have impact on taxes at some point down the road).
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Replying to @MForstater @ali_readhead and
That's just complicating the ways in which things can work. The end result is N observation of reported losses. What % genuine. You're only being asked to choose one of 4 buckets.
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Replying to @CarterPaddy @MForstater and
Imagine an omniscient God produced the answer. Your options are 1 claim God couldn't, in which case I expect to see you never use the word profit again other than to argue it's an empty concept, or 2 say you can't guess, in which case I expect to see you never raise an eyebrow ..
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