Maya Forstater

do you know if indicators for 17.1 have been agreed, and if so do they capture BEPs? On grey areas, where would you situate e.g. MNC tax planning that was internally estimated to have ~50% chance of being deemed legal if examined by courts?

maybe first I should ask about the prevalence of ~50% probability legal arrangements.

I don't think that's the right metric. I often see entirely uncontroversial arrangements where the tax analysis is so complex we end up 51% confident of a position. On the other hand, some avoidance (e.g. treaty shopping) could get to a v high degree of confidence.

You can probably appreciate how to outsiders 51% confidence looks like a grey area that shades into evasion , not "entirely uncontroversial"!

I'd be interested in a poll asking everyone involved in these debates what % of MNC tax planning, or intergroup transactions, they'd guess would be deemed legal if examined by a competent court.

I couldn’t answer so general a question. Most intra-group services are personnel, paperclip, etc - nothing tricky or naughty. Even for the most aggressive MNC I doubt more than a small fraction is questionable.