Maya Forstater

Trying to find good estimates on how large proportion of the world trade takes place in value chains. Any ideas? Many studies seem to use this input-output database, but I've had difficulties trying to find out how reliable the input-output data is. http://www.wiod.org/home 

There is a figure of 70% often quoted but I don’t know its source. Probably in @OECDtax commentary - @phdskat might know.

Many thanks! Any idea how the 70% estimate would fit together with estimates that intra-firm trade would account for more than half of the world trade? Or is it 70% of non-intra-firm trade?

I’ve actually been looking for the exact same thing, Matti, because as far as I can tell we have no reliable estimate! Please let me know how you get on :) The 60/70% figure seems to have been a misunderstanding of an old UNCTAD report - right @MForstater?

The 60/70% is from UNCTAD and it is for "in value chains". It gets mistaken for intrafirm (ie transfer pricing) but it includes suppliers, eg factories making shoes for Nike & Adidas, farmers growing beans for Starbucks, OEMs like Foxconn producing for Apple, Nintendo etc

I think UNCTAD WIR 1999 original source: "Trade within TNCs & arm’s length trade associated w TNCs estimated at 2/3 of world trade, & intra-firm trade, alone 1/3." - I asked John Neighbour, he said couldn't remember but plausible for 2002 article (i.e. misunderstanding)