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The report points out that if countries raised tax take by several points of GDP (e.g. up to 20%) and spent 20% of this on education it wld raise budget significantly (but as @ODIdev highlight, in LICs this not enough to close the gap w need) 2/ https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/9594.pdf …pic.twitter.com/0LD9QGhYWc
The report glosses over this and instead uses several bait-and-switches that give the impression of huge $s from taxing big biz more in poor countries.http://www.actionaid.org/sites/files/actionaid/scaling_up_domestic_resources_online.pdf … 3/
Switch 1: The IMF ($200bn) study there refers to *non-OECD* countries (incl. Russia, China Brazil, Saudi Arabia, S Africa etc.. ) Action Aid compares the estimated tax at stake w education spending needs in low and lower middle income countries 4/pic.twitter.com/MOvi7DmuWN
Switch 2: "Illicit Financial Flows" are not tax revenue losses. You cannot assume 20% of them for education. (and you shouldn't assume that mismatches in trade data represent 'misinvoicing by multinational companies' https://www.cgdev.org/blog/gaps-trade-data-criminal-money-laundering …) 5/pic.twitter.com/l5SLWBY1j7
Switch 3: That $138 bn of incentives is from Martin Hearson's study of CIT exemptions https://martinhearson.wordpress.com/2013/07/16/709/ (which doesnt say that these are harmful or unnecessary - just that they should be reviewed). He finds that $7.6 bn of this is in Sub Saharan Africa 6/pic.twitter.com/ulRt140NNm
So where does $38.6bn come from? Its a different study. Different thing. All tax expenditures (again some may be harmful, some not). A lot is lower VAT rates on basic goods, & import VAT exemptions for importers. (7/)
Then there is the Paladin Case in Malawi. This mine has never made a profit (and is currently shuttered). So the Idea that it coulda shoulda paid more tax when in its loss making operational phase needs taking with a pinch of salt (and this is only case in the report) 8/pic.twitter.com/VSw2eKMtq0
Yes govs should review incentives, improve auditing of MNCs, take care w tax treaties, cooperate on international tax rules & info sharing. But no it is not a magic bullet for education funding. Its (high) time to stop repeating these misunderstandings and get serious. 9/9
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