Maya Forstater

I’m not really competent to assess - @phdskat... do you have a view?

It’s true Zucman’s tax evasion $$’s are based partly on an estimate of how much of a limited sample of Swiss undeclared wealth was evaded

As I recall, that estimate is based on an actual comparison based on leaked data. So there is a basis, albeit limited & up for discussion

I also recall Gabriel inviting discussion of these and other assumptions

The takeaway, IMO: Limited data always a problem here; doesn’t mean magnitudes wrong, but assumptions merit debate &interpretatitive caution

At a crude order of magnitude level, Zucman’s $75bn for EU wd imply c£9bn for UK. But per tax gap, total evasion £5.2bn; total ind £3.4bn

Can w assume disproportionately *low* evasion in the UK, given so many UHNW are non-doms?

Since the UK/Swiss deal we should hope that the UK element is lower. Some evaders will have moved their funds but some structures may remain