. @Penny_WB getting straight to it on globalization and inequality @ifs #IFSAnnualLecture @royalsocietypic.twitter.com/FO95LB9FwY
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More trade affected by tariffs, fewer regional trade agreements signedpic.twitter.com/DlwTnYD4hN
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Consumers bare the costs of tariffs. Not large, but uncertainty could have long term impacts . Is it a blip or the beginning of a new era of deglobalisation? #IFSAnnualLecture
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50% of people in US say trade destroys jobs and lowers wages. In developing countries more positive perception
@TheIFS#IFSAnnualLecturepic.twitter.com/nU48TzuLxJ
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Departure from free trade is not a disaster in the short run for large economies. But large distribution Al effects.
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Global inequality has reduced dramatically post World War II. Globalisation and integration of developing economies has played an important role. But trade off between global and within country inequality?
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Where did the elephant go? Now period, better data shows growth of the 1% and the squeezed middlepic.twitter.com/6Xay4ZvTBe
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But global poverty as down almost everywhere (apart from Africa)pic.twitter.com/aayE4jApSb
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Is trade fair? Frequent complaints that large developing countries abusing their status ....rise in feeling towards protectionism in developed countries
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Hecksher-Ohlin model says trade played only a small role in the rise of the skill premium (--> labour market inequality) but since 2000 trade is getting more attention. Why China shock? Or focus on regional inequality?
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China joined the WTO, Chinese imports hit as US coming out of recession -- manufacturing employment never recoveredpic.twitter.com/RN9S5FVua5
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But other countries did not see the same impact. Alternative interpretation -- regional inequality , limited labour mobility accross space
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Liberalisation in Brazil followed by long fall in employment and earnings over 20 yearspic.twitter.com/z8FY95yOfj
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Do consumers benefit? In India prices fall, quality and variety rise, but markups increases, cost reductions not fully passed on to consumerspic.twitter.com/ohpgym1k9h
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But you don't see this in every industry. Eg. Not in transport.
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