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Hands up if you think this figure is a good approximation of the right ballpark? You all know what I think, but is there anyone who thinks this is a reasonable estimate?https://twitter.com/alexcobham/status/1110578056144531457 …
I'm not saying this to be difficult. Remember Reynolds & Wier estimate of revenue loss to profit shifting for South Africa (using tax return data) was 0.05%of GDP. https://www.cgdev.org/blog/how-big-transfer-pricing-prize-development … @SongweVera
Over inflated expectations risk undermining good work of revenue authorities, taxpayer morale and investment environment for compliant taxpayers.
So what do you propose @MForstater ? I think it is recognised that the confidence interval for these figures is uncomfortably narrow, but I don't see that as a good enough reason not to have this discussion.
I didn't say don't have a discussion about international corporate tax/BEPS and Africa. But why use figures that no one seriously thinks are in the right ballpark? 
Even the IMF the other day said 1.2% and people were not sure of that.
Even more to the point, formulary apportionment is brilliant for tax avoiders. E.g. tech companies offer reduced prices if you set up a sub/freestanding purchasing co in a tax haven to buy all your worldwide online services.
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