2) They are based on detailed COMTRADE data - commodity by commodity and using import-export country pairs, rather than balance of payments.
Show this thread
-
This seems to me like a useful risk assessment tool. These are specific red flags to follow up on. Are there innocent explanations for the patterns in the data or is there something dodgy in these specific trades? (like whats up with used clothing exports from UK to Kenya?)
Show this thread
I'd like to see what the potential losses in different categories look like with different modelling assumptions on the transport costs -- how robust are they? But all in all a lot of improvement in the methodology.
-
-
Its not quite so clear in the Nigeria case - again they focus detailed analysis on import underinvoicing (absolute numbers driven by small margins on large volumes of vehicle imports). But import underinvoicing is not the biggest category in Nigeria...what is the export story?pic.twitter.com/t2gX52TCWc
Show this thread -
Kudos to
@GFI_Tweets for working to address the methodological issues and improve the estimates (they could publish the underlying data and calculations too!)Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.