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In short: this is not a massive misunderstanding of the estimates that exist, but its not all that meaningful either. It is an arresting factoid from a communications perspective but it risks creating unrealistic expectationshttps://globalanticorruptionblog.com/2016/01/20/waging-at-corruption-a-modest-proposal/ …
'Just think of what the money could do!' isn't the right way to think about returned IFFs IMO: the legal processes takes too long & the sums returned are too small for this to be major source of investment finance. Attack IFFs to disrupt crime & corruption and prevent impunity.
Thanks for this great & v useful thread. Isn't the prize in looking forward to reduce future IFFs, rather than trying to reclaim past IFFs?
Yes. But even then it is not straightforward to think of these as gross amounts of 'lost' resources that if they didn't flow out wld be invested domestically. e.g. if you disrupt ML by a drug trafficking network, putting them out of business would not unleash a flow of funds...
it would have been nice to see "This is not true," supported by 1. A number, representing the USD value of illicit flows out of Africa and 2. A larger number, representing USD value of aid & multilateral lending into Africa. But we never got that.
I said it's not *not* true. The statement is accurate as a representation of existing estimates, but is not meaningful for the reasons I explain.
Re legal process... the trumpeted money for Kenya was frozen in Jersey over two years ago.http://www.itv.com/news/channel/update/2016-02-25/millions-seized-from-jersey-company-in-corruption-case/ …
Good thread. Playing Devils the Advocate a few more thoughts. 1. How much of IFFs are repatriated after laundering overseas, so reinvested in domestic economy? 2. How much is not stolen from the State, so not part of calculations of "what can be done with the money"?
3. How much is repayable to "victims of crime"?
4. How much paid voluntarily by people for goods and services they know or suspect to be criminal, eg drugs. Is that refundable?
In other words wonder how much of those headline numbers are "lost" for development?
@JonathanSaid1
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the estimates are sketchy & comparison with aid is not meaningful. On the other 
crime & corruption are real & big: it is certainly right for the UK to act to prevent IFFs & return assets. Does it matter that these 
s don't mean much? (2/)
