See the National Crime Agency official estimates.
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Replying to @BigTentIdeas @MForstater and
Thanks. It says £24bn. http://www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/crime-threats/money-launderin …pic.twitter.com/qvEMaoyNou
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Replying to @iaincampbell07 @BigTentIdeas and
This is not easy to follow. Once you exclude funds and fortune 500 companies, there are not that many banks with not that many personal and private company accounts that ever pass 9 figures. Many of these would be PEP.
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Replying to @p_sfitz @iaincampbell07 and
Unless the money laundering is bypassing banks it would seem to me unlikely, even allowing for large banks being a bit crap at compliance, for hundreds of billions a year to be laundered through British banks.
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Replying to @p_sfitz @iaincampbell07 and
For perspective, these are the three biggest recent AML cases I can think of this second: HSBC US/Mexico: https://www.google.fr/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2012/dec/11/hsbc-bank-us-money-laundering …; Deutsche UK/Moscow: https://money.cnn.com/2017/01/31/investing/deutsche-bank-us-fine-russia-money-laundering/index.html … and 1MBD/BSI: https://www.google.fr/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN19X0MC … Adds up to about 12billion over a few years all around the world.
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Replying to @p_sfitz @BigTentIdeas and
You've got me thinking I'll now need to go back and reread what the NCA said and how they calculate their figures!
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Replying to @iaincampbell07 @p_sfitz and
Its all guesswork I think. In 1996 NCA say 36 - 90 billion UKP , based on applying an 'IMF' guesstimate that money laundering transactions may equal 2-5% of GDP.pic.twitter.com/8n9eQqWTY7
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Replying to @MForstater @iaincampbell07 and
This figure comes from a speech that Michel Camdessus made in 1998 https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sp021098 … and no one has been able to find the workings for that number.
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Replying to @MForstater @p_sfitz and
Thanks for the provenance. Its nearly midnight, so maybe not thinking clearly, but I'm beginning to worry that behind a lot of the popular "big numbers" someone, somewhere, sometime, arrived at a number for a specific purpose. But once made they took on a life of their own.
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The '2-5%' estimates are based on the assumption that the drugs trade is highly profitable, & a high proportion of profits are laundered... But much of the overall profit is distributed amongst the low-volume retail players, though fortunes made & laundered at the high levelpic.twitter.com/vTRaCMVzAr
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Replying to @MForstater @iaincampbell07 and
Thanks
@MForstater great digging as usual! I think the industrial scale laundering is government extracted money in non -OECD countries, plus perhaps drug money.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @p_sfitz @MForstater and
I have definitely underestimated drug related laundering according to this list: https://www.int-comp.com/ict-views/posts/2016/07/22/top-5-money-laundering-cases-of-the-last-30-years/ … If I get time next week I might check some do these out, the Wachovia and SCB numbers in particular are very big but hard to reconcile with their relatively ordinary fines.
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