Presumably Alex is not proposing that the UN have a marker for "illicitness" which is simply a calculation of the difference between the status quo and a unitary tax system?
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Replying to @DanNeidle @alexcobham and
That's the proposal. (with 'real economic activity' as the simple average of share of employee headcount & final sales in each jurisdiction) https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/IFF/Background_paper_B_Measurement_of_Illicit_Financial_Flows_UNCTAD_web.pdf …pic.twitter.com/U1MvQNph1X
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Replying to @MForstater @DanNeidle and
The final sentence then admits the indicator will be at inaccurate. So how big is that and why try to use this artificial benchmark? Is it not like using the policy gap to redefine and remeasure the tax gap.
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Replying to @iaincampbell07 @DanNeidle and
OK so I tried the indicator calculation out on Pearson (since they publish CBCR)pic.twitter.com/BHT6A0yYzI
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Replying to @MForstater @iaincampbell07 and
Here is the result. A billion of IFF/profit shifting out of the US (in order to increase its loss there?!?) into mainly UK & China https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J6a_fYcthaaD5MKtfyV971-foP1aVI3TcmDAy1KalNk/edit?usp=sharing … Not sure this makes any sense ( or sits with illicit arms sales, stolen assets & organised crime?)pic.twitter.com/iD1OsKHvxo
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Replying to @MForstater @iaincampbell07 and
I have no knowledge of Pearson’s tax affairs but that cannot be right.
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Replying to @DanNeidle @iaincampbell07 and
(* note -- its close but not quite what the proposed indicator would measure - indicator uses outward sales while Pearson report revenues including intracompany transactions ....but its close enough to get an idea of what the indicator captures in practice here)
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Replying to @MForstater @DanNeidle and
Large if we take 'group adjustments' as indicative - towards 1/4 of all revenue. But it's the fact the group made such a heavy loss that's driving the pattern of results and makes them unrepresentative.
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Replying to @alexcobham @MForstater and
Just as well your indicator would exclude such anomalies then - or does it?
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Replying to @DanNeidle @alexcobham and
I've tried it with Lush. Calculation says big profit shifting/IFFs out of Brazil, Japan, Hong Kong into the UK (if I'm doing it right?) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J6a_fYcthaaD5MKtfyV971-foP1aVI3TcmDAy1KalNk/edit#gid=13624373 … (if I'm doing it right?)pic.twitter.com/szIPZAgLMB
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(excuse the cut and paste fail before)
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