Of course I accept some of the alignment is down to intentional BEPS. But you cannot assume it all is, when that is just not how current frameworks work.
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Replying to @DanNeidle @georgenturner and
It’s a category error - the misalignment calculations don’t and can’t measure tax avoidance or evasion. They measure the imperfection of the status quo vs an idealised unitary tax system
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Replying to @DanNeidle @georgenturner and
You say it's a category error Dan, when it is explicitly identified on the approach that misalignment > shifting.
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Replying to @alexcobham @DanNeidle and
Here 500bn an estimate of misalignment is equated to avoidance.pic.twitter.com/Ni4JJSZd6S
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Replying to @MForstater @DanNeidle and
No, the IMF methodology is about BEPS rather than misalignment. (Our BEA study is misalignment.)
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Replying to @alexcobham @MForstater and
To repeat: “Lawfully achieved misalignment”= intentional tax avoidance. In reality misalignment = “natural misalignment” + evasion + avoidance. Where does your piece acknowledge that the first category exists?
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Replying to @DanNeidle @alexcobham and
To be fair, in the Vienna paper it is spelled out. But caveats are quickly discarded. As Alex notes he does not make it clear in his recent briefing. What is the chance that anyone else will make the distinction if the indicator is made the official UN marker for "illicitness"?
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Replying to @MForstater @alexcobham and
Presumably Alex is not proposing that the UN have a marker for "illicitness" which is simply a calculation of the difference between the status quo and a unitary tax system?
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Replying to @DanNeidle @alexcobham and
That's the proposal. (with 'real economic activity' as the simple average of share of employee headcount & final sales in each jurisdiction) https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/IFF/Background_paper_B_Measurement_of_Illicit_Financial_Flows_UNCTAD_web.pdf …pic.twitter.com/U1MvQNph1X
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Replying to @MForstater @DanNeidle and
The final sentence then admits the indicator will be at inaccurate. So how big is that and why try to use this artificial benchmark? Is it not like using the policy gap to redefine and remeasure the tax gap.
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OK so I tried the indicator calculation out on Pearson (since they publish CBCR)pic.twitter.com/BHT6A0yYzI
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Replying to @MForstater @iaincampbell07 and
Here is the result. A billion of IFF/profit shifting out of the US (in order to increase its loss there?!?) into mainly UK & China https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J6a_fYcthaaD5MKtfyV971-foP1aVI3TcmDAy1KalNk/edit?usp=sharing … Not sure this makes any sense ( or sits with illicit arms sales, stolen assets & organised crime?)pic.twitter.com/iD1OsKHvxo
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Replying to @MForstater @iaincampbell07 and
I have no knowledge of Pearson’s tax affairs but that cannot be right.
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