Fixed, thanks. On your point, Dan, it would be interesting to hear your thoughts on the overall argument, which might explain the element you don't follow (or don't like?) here?
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Unless I am misunderstanding, your approach is to compare the tax that is actually paid with the tax that would be paid if taxable profit were aligned with “real economic activity”. 1/3
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Replying to @DanNeidle @alexcobham and
You then define the difference as profit shifting. But “real economic activity” is not how existing tax systems work. You’re not measuring profit shifting at all.
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Replying to @DanNeidle @alexcobham and
As the entire purpose of the BEPS project was to change the law, is it not a pointless exercise to only define BEPS in terms of how the law currently operates? Such an approach would entirely defeat the purpose of the BEPS project wouldn't it?
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Replying to @georgenturner @alexcobham and
Of course I accept some of the alignment is down to intentional BEPS. But you cannot assume it all is, when that is just not how current frameworks work.
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Replying to @DanNeidle @georgenturner and
It’s a category error - the misalignment calculations don’t and can’t measure tax avoidance or evasion. They measure the imperfection of the status quo vs an idealised unitary tax system
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Replying to @DanNeidle @georgenturner and
You say it's a category error Dan, when it is explicitly identified on the approach that misalignment > shifting.
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Replying to @alexcobham @DanNeidle and
Here 500bn an estimate of misalignment is equated to avoidance.pic.twitter.com/Ni4JJSZd6S
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Replying to @MForstater @DanNeidle and
No, the IMF methodology is about BEPS rather than misalignment. (Our BEA study is misalignment.)
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Replying to @alexcobham @MForstater and
To repeat: “Lawfully achieved misalignment”= intentional tax avoidance. In reality misalignment = “natural misalignment” + evasion + avoidance. Where does your piece acknowledge that the first category exists?
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To be fair, in the Vienna paper it is spelled out. But caveats are quickly discarded. As Alex notes he does not make it clear in his recent briefing. What is the chance that anyone else will make the distinction if the indicator is made the official UN marker for "illicitness"?
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Replying to @MForstater @alexcobham and
Presumably Alex is not proposing that the UN have a marker for "illicitness" which is simply a calculation of the difference between the status quo and a unitary tax system?
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Replying to @DanNeidle @alexcobham and
That's the proposal. (with 'real economic activity' as the simple average of share of employee headcount & final sales in each jurisdiction) https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/IFF/Background_paper_B_Measurement_of_Illicit_Financial_Flows_UNCTAD_web.pdf …pic.twitter.com/U1MvQNph1X
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