Finally breaking my twitter silence with this:https://twitter.com/EEID_oxford/status/1242402762283012096 …
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Question: What isn't clear to me from your modelling is if you can exclude rho being much larger than 0.01. Is there any suggestion your model might exclude this possibility?
We can't exclude that - pretty much the same way the model does not demonstrate that rho is very small. Our professional opinion is that rho is small. The exercises are to demonstrate the theoretical relationship between rho and herd-immunity. These are not forecasts. Thanks!
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You might want to clarify that to the FT: "perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford" I am looking forward to results from your antibody studies as soon as possible!
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Work is underway! (It is difficult to control how information flows, is communicated and interpreted - this, however, and no matter how much some people want to, should NOT be an obstacle for discussion and search for solutions that make this pandemic easier to manage).
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So if I understand right, this model says that the less dangerous the disease is (smaller rho), the larger the fraction of the population that must have had the disease in order to produce the observed number of deaths, and vice versa.
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... but it doesn't allow you to say how big or small rho is, as pretty much any value is consistent with the observed curves. That makes sense - an exponential still looks like an exponential if you change the scale on the y axis.
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Hi there, I would be very interested to know why you had a PR firm involved in putting the paper out before it was peer reviewed?
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What is the basis for your professional opinion that rho is small?
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On what evidence do you base that "professional opinion"? The model itself provides none, and you don't seem to consider any of the measurements that already exist and contradict that conclusion. Also: sorry, but that theoretical relationship is trivial.
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