Uncertainty is of particular importance when considering decisions with global, long-lasting and potentially irreversible consequences (e.g. decisions related to #ClimateChange )
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Happy to share that our new paper with M. Marinacci on #uncertainty and #climatechange has just been published @SpringerNature
https://rdcu.be/b7snR pic.twitter.com/pLEpMbMfQV
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The “
#uncertainty” encountered when dealing with climate change goes well beyond the classical notion of “#risk” typically used by economists.Deze collectie tonen -
In a nutshell: “
#risk” refers to situations in which we know the probabilities of an event. “#Uncertainty” to situations in which it is not the caseDeze collectie tonen -
Most decisions (eg. related to
#ClimateChange ) are made are made under “#uncertainty” rather than “#risk”. Why? Because: too little information is available, different predictions exist, resulting from different models or datasets, or from different experts’ opinions.Deze collectie tonen -
It is therefore important to use models developed to deal with
#uncertainty rather the ones originally developed to deal with#risk, in problems involving uncertaintyDeze collectie tonen -
In the paper, we review recent decision criteria under
#uncertainty that have been proposed and apply them to a simple#ClimateChange decision problemDeze collectie tonen -
Our objective is to offer guidance to policy makers who face uncertainty when designing climate policies
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