2/ Current risk metrics from our most recent CDMs: Miss distance: 12 meters (+18/-12 meters) Probability of Collision: >10%, scaled to account for large object sizes Relative velocity: 14.7 km/spic.twitter.com/y44QXyhHJK
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1/ This event continues to be very high risk and will likely stay this way through the time of closest approach. Our system generates new conjunction reports 6-8x per day on this event with new observation data each time.pic.twitter.com/d3tRbcV2P0
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3/ Shortly after TCA, we will have a direct pass of CZ-4C R/B over our Kiwi Space Radar in New Zealand. We have scheduled a search mode scan during this time to ensure we only see two objects as expected and hopefully confirm that no new debris is detected.pic.twitter.com/hcZsOF3uIT
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Love this visualization!
Danke! Twitter wird dies nutzen, um deine Timeline zu verbessern. Rückgängig machenRückgängig machen
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Is Pc trending up, down, or staying constant as we get closer to the event?
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Naturally PC should decrease over time due to each velocity measurement being multiplied by a lower and lower dT, but we can expect it to approach a constant non-zero value on the 15th (but still with error margins).
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if something like this happens... What will long term effects be? Will it start a cascade of other collisions? Muddy up an altitude for years to come?
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A cascading series of collisions would be a worst case, but very possible, scenario:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome …
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Goodness, calculating all the elements into something this precise is an amazing feat! What is more likely to change as we get closer to the event, the intersection point in space or the intersection time?
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is it possible to calculate what the debris field is going to look like if there is a collision?
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@TSKelso and his team at AGI are probably working on that right now!
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