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1) @WhiteHouse #COVIDー19 death estimates aren't transparent re models used. Best model now is @IHME_UW http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-us-hospitals-could-be-overwhelmed-second-week-april-demand-icu …. To evaluate projections we need to understand the assumptions
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2) Model for #COVID death estimates assumes effective #PhysicalDistancing. But US has patchwork response. Some states aggressive (NY), some do little (FL), some do a lot but surrounding areas nothing (New Orleans). Being realistic, case/death projections could be higher
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Truth is, we can't predict death counts. Much depends on 3 factors:
♦︎Will #PhysicalDistancing be rigorous, consistent & long-lasting?
♦︎Will hosps be well-supplied, well functioning?
♦︎What's time horizon? Perhaps 50-100K by July, but weeks/months later deaths will mount
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