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I'm being asked if Tokyo Olympics should (will) go ahead. The IOC makes the call but will rely on @WHO. It would be utterly irresponsible to hold the Olympics. Why? I was an ardent supporter of holding the Brazil Olympics despite Zika, but #COVID19 is a once in a century pandemicpic.twitter.com/EXM8Mn5z1H
1/4 Reasons to Postpone #Tokyo2020. Imagine if #Olympics2020 were now, no one would conclude it was safe or feasible: almost all borders are closed; airlines stopped flights; millions shelter in place/physical distancing; cases surging in Europe & N. America.
2/4 If #Olympics inconceivable now could we confidently predict it'd be safe by 24 July? Never: Even if #COVID19 sharply declined in Japan/Asia, US & Europe could be near peak; Africa/Middle East/Latin America could be surging. Olympics are a global event w/ mass travel worldwide
3/4 There's so much we about #Covid_19 we don't know & won't know by summer. Assuming #PhysicalDistancing + travel restrictions effective, we don't know when they can safely be lifted. Data suggest if we lift aggressive measure too soon #SARSCoV2 could surge.
4/4 #COVIDー19 is a once a century event. Our only model is Great Influenza Pandemic 1918. Then cases dropped in the summer, but came raging back in Fall/Winter. Most deaths occurred in the 2nd wave. Would we want to take that chance by lifting aggressive mitigation too soon?
Even if the peaks are over by then (doubtful) think of how many people are required to prepare for a multi- week event as large as the Olympics. They would have to be working actively on it now to be ready which is inconceivable risk.
As a Tokyo permanent resident .... we dont want our city to host the Summer Olympics either because we dont have the actual Covid - 19 infection number and it’s of criminal intent and negliance to hurt worldwide athletes and spectators or uptick our number #OnehealthfortheWorld
It is very difficult for me to imagine that Japan will move forward with the Olympics in any other manner other than to proceed without a live audience.
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