I think it’s really because we aren’t looking for cases (or are only looking for certain cases). We are in the middle of a terrible flu season and it would be easy to miss, focused only on very specific travel links, as is currently the case.
The situation in China is quite serious. But what explains such low case counts outside China? Is #COVID19 less transmissible then we think? Or is enhanced border screening working?https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1228780339109085184 …
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singapore and japan has about as many new cases per day as Beijing. so I think the chinese border isn’t any factor here. it is just the math of local pandemics. starts small. add time and interactions, reaches everyone eventually
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... international seeding events started to occur in mid-Jan. Thus we have a critical ~10 weeks from then to late-March to contain these nascent outbreaks before they become sizable...https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1226241657860870144 …
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Important question! Even in China it is still very concentrated on Hubei! Why? Time lag? Worse infection control? Ongoing spillover? Missing more cases elsewhere? Important to answer!
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delay. we must consider that the incubation is 24 days, not 14. we will all understand better in late March.
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Can be several possibilities - perhaps the outbreak was already widespread in Wuhan/China before they raised the alarm and instituted precautions and informed the international community.
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Fascinating right? 99% of cases reported in mainland China (most in Hubei province) and very little evidence of sustained HTH transmission outside China.
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We would know this by now if the incubation period were shorter
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What are the error margins? How much false positives do you get in a million tests of the kinds used for the actual diagnosis?
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