volunteers are not a random sample, statistically speaking
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Appreciate the clarification (as always)
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The health communication messaging to the public has been a mess on this (& many other aspects). These are complicated ideas and need to be better/more simply explained
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What is often not clear if whether mild and asymptomatic cases are included or not, Sinovac had 3 diff. levels of efficacy in Brazil: 100% against deaths, 80+% against severe cases, but 50% against mild and asymptomatic.
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You say “less severe hospitalization & death;” NFID says “95% reduction in cases.” I understand a “case” as an individual who tests positive.
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It’s this. If it were severe disease or mortality then Oxford/AZ efficacy would be way higher since there were no incidences of severe disease or death in the active subgroup in their P3 trials
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Got my second dose of the Pfizer vaccine, but this is disappointing.
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@Laurie_Garrett are you sure that’s right? It’s reduction in incidence of infection- you are equating that to “severe hospitalisation and death”. The difference is significant and some vaccines may be better or worse at the latter than that headline efficacy. -
Their primary endpoint was disease. They only swabbed those with symptoms. The endpoint was symptomatic COVID, not infections.
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The popular belief you state is wrong, but your correction is also wrong. The 95% number is efficacy against PCR-confirmed COVID-19 disease of any severity. Hospitalization and death not required; efficacy against those is reported separately.
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I know the participants were required to report any symptoms, but it would have been very interesting for several hundred in placebo and vaccine group to have collected daily nose swabs. Might have caught a transient subclin case here or there for group comparison.
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