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1) So I told you this was coming in JULY. https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/dems-in-absolute-panic-as-early-data-shatters-narrative-in-key-states/ … "In Philadelphia, home to Temple U, Drexel, UPenn and LaSalle Univ, the 18-29 youth vote has gone from 23.1% 2016 and 12.5% in the midterms, to 11.7% in 2020 now." 2) But wait, this isn't the worst for them.
2) contd . . . Follow me on this. ELECTION DAY is when the "yuts" really come out because of herding, mobilizing, etc. 3) To replace the (my projection -30%) shortfall on ED, they needed to be UP 30% in this category BEFORE election day.
4) I could be way off, but . . . if the "Yut" vote is down 2/3 NOW???? 5) It means my ED/final projection for 18-24s is gonna be way low. 6) They may be down nationally by 2/3 or more. 7) My estimate of a "missing" 1-1.5m Yuts could be way low. We might be looking at 2.5m
8) "In Dane county, WI, home to UW Madison and one of America’s most liberal college towns, the youth vote has declined from 8.0% in 2016 to 7.3% now. This came as a BIG surprise, as 27% of the total 2016 vote is already in, and the WI youth vote was expected to be energized."
9) Again, "AND VOTE EARLY." Why? Cuz they ain't gonna be on campus.
10) So if they aren't there on election day, they can't just be "down" now. They need to not just be "even" with 2016 now.
They need to be AHEAD of 2016 #s by at least 30%.
This is gonna be the Big Hurt.
The funny part is that the yuts that are definitely voting are in the conservative cohort. So Trump's % of yut vote will increase, just like AA and Hispanic.
@Aggies4T This is exactly what Aggie May tells me is happening at a very conservative college like Texas A&M
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