Larry Lewis Twitterissä: "(12) framework to help connect incidents with past patterns, helping militaries to learn more effectively and better spare civilians. This is just a bit of what including experts on civilian harm on an investigation could achieve. I hope this helps! (Figure below)… https://t.co/ycV2xfqzU4"

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Larry Lewis‏ @LarryLewis_ 21. syysk.

Vastauksena käyttäjille @LarryLewis_, @Brian_Castner ja

(3) That involves knowing history. Knowing details of past incidents. Doing the hard work to identify patterns. I’ve either led or contributed to all the studies that have done that, so I can speak to the lessons that are there for the investigation team if they sought them.

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Larry Lewis‏ @LarryLewis_ 21. syysk.

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(4) Let’s consider a few. Misidentification, mistaking civilians as valid targets, is a major recurring problem. But because the military is wrong in its identification, it often never realizes its mistake, unless someone else—like the NYT Visual Investigation Team—reveals it.

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Larry Lewis‏ @LarryLewis_ 21. syysk.

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(5) This bias against perceiving misidentification as a major is so strong that the US Joint Staff CIVCAS study said there was no identification problem. I disagreed so strongly (because the facts don’t agree) that a dissenting footnote is in the report (with @HolewinskiSarah

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Larry Lewis‏ @LarryLewis_ 21. syysk.

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(5) …also agreeing. A knowledge of past incidents and patterns would have kept them from making that mistake. And that’s one of the tragic mistakes made in this strike. What else is there? Another observation I made back in 2011 concerned @drones. They were said to be surgical

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Larry Lewis‏ @LarryLewis_ 21. syysk.

Vastauksena käyttäjille @LarryLewis_, @Brian_Castner ja

(6) … causing less civilian casualties. So I asked, what does the data say? I did the analysis and found that drones were ten times more likely to cause civilian casualties than manned aircraft. Why? Drones have a number of features that increase the risks to civilians.

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Larry Lewis‏ @LarryLewis_ 21. syysk.

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(7) One of those features is a distributed process for processing, exploitation, and dissemination. I found that there was a pattern: in a set of cases, the fact that civilians were present in the target area was known by someone in the group of operators and analysts, but…

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Larry Lewis‏ @LarryLewis_ 21. syysk.

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(8) … that information didn’t reach the commander making the decision to fire. That sounds similar to the news reporting that the CIA knew there were civilians present, doesn’t it? If we know history, we can know that’s not a unique case. There are things that can be done to…

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Larry Lewis‏ @LarryLewis_ 21. syysk.

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(9) …mitigate that problem, but the problem needs to be understood first as a common contributor. Another one? The fact that civilians were present in the target area but not observed is something else that happens often. There are specific tactics that drone operators use that

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Larry Lewis‏ @LarryLewis_ 21. syysk.

Vastauksena käyttäjille @LarryLewis_, @Brian_Castner ja

(10) increase this risk. I’ve also seen operators finding ways to mitigate this risk, and there are other possible solutions too, but in recent operations I’ve seen this happen a lot and this incident underscores the lack of progress. I also made a graphic to illustrate these…

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Larry Lewis‏ @LarryLewis_ 21. syysk.

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(11) other factors that lead to civilian harm. If civilian harm occurred, one (or possibly several) of these factors were at play. Civilian harm is understandable, and can be mitigated if we understand what is going wrong. IMHO investigations and assessments could use this…

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Larry Lewis‏ @LarryLewis_ 21. syysk.

Vastauksena käyttäjille @LarryLewis_, @Brian_Castner ja

(12) framework to help connect incidents with past patterns, helping militaries to learn more effectively and better spare civilians. This is just a bit of what including experts on civilian harm on an investigation could achieve. I hope this helps! (Figure below)pic.twitter.com/imCN3cDMGZ