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LPDonovan's profile
Liam Donovan
Liam Donovan
Liam Donovan
Verified account
@LPDonovan

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Liam DonovanVerified account

@LPDonovan

Politics. Hoyas. YMMV. Views expressed are mine alone, obviously. @TheLobbyShopPod

VA
lpdonovan.com
Joined June 2009

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    Liam Donovan‏Verified account @LPDonovan 9 Nov 2016

    Prescient stuff from @SeanTrende last summer http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/the-dirty-little-secrets-about-2016-predictions-119860 …pic.twitter.com/MhJgIvazum

    7:57 AM - 9 Nov 2016
    • 239 Retweets
    • 334 Likes
    • La Cosa Jostra Gray Connolly Petra Lindsey Rohitha Dassanayake Ronz Evan Herbert Anita Hofschneider M. McMarkkis Randeep Ramesh
    19 replies 239 retweets 334 likes
      1. Aurelius‏ @AureliusPundit 9 Nov 2016
        Replying to @LPDonovan @SeanTrende

        Only Nate Silver survives

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Liam Donovan‏Verified account @LPDonovan 9 Nov 2016
        Replying to @LPDonovan

        Models are only as good as their inputs. Garbage in, garbage out. But the illusion of decimal place precision leads us to infer certainty.

        10 replies 49 retweets 149 likes
      3. 𝙋𝙤 🇺🇸 ᶠʳᵒᵐ 𝘾𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙤𝙣 𝙃𝙞𝙡𝙡 BK‏ @Po_C_HILL 9 Nov 2016
        Replying to @LPDonovan

        @chrislhayes did Dems win the popular for the prez, Senate, and Congress?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. 𝐋𝐞𝐢𝐥𝐚 𝐊𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐚𝐢𝐝 🌹‏ @LeilaKincaid 9 Nov 2016
        Replying to @LPDonovan @chrislhayes @SeanTrende

        They fall to confirmation bias. We knew this from the Primary in Michigan and Brexit.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Donna Osborn‏ @donnaos 9 Nov 2016
        Replying to @LPDonovan

        @chrislhayes @SeanTrende you know I just settle for reporting the facts

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Ken Haylock‏ @khaylock 9 Nov 2016
        Replying to @LPDonovan @chrislhayes @SeanTrende

        Nate Silver was mostly right again, I note...

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Equal Opp Cynic [Philip]‏ @EqualOppCynic 9 Nov 2016
        Replying to @khaylock

        Exactly. He got roasted for admitting uncertainty, exactly what this article demands. @LPDonovan @chrislhayes @SeanTrende

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Feliz Chrismahannukwanzika‏ @SeIpsa 9 Nov 2016
        Replying to @LPDonovan @KSoltisAnderson @SeanTrende

        Pretty sure "data journalists" @FiveThirtyEight did not downplay how much uncertainty there was.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Liam Donovan‏Verified account @LPDonovan 9 Nov 2016
        Replying to @SeIpsa @KSoltisAnderson @SeanTrende

        well yeah, and Silver was almost tarred and feathered

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. John‏ @jimbo831 9 Nov 2016
        Replying to @LPDonovan @chrislhayes @SeanTrende

        To be fair, @FiveThirtyEight did not downplay the uncertainty unlike other models.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 9 Nov 2016
        Replying to @jimbo831 @LPDonovan and

        I specifically give them a shout out.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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