It’s important for us always to remember that ultimately trends are more important than events. Trends most of the time are positive and events most of the time are negative. We have to step back and look at things that may be markers of trends.
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I saw two such things this week: China's huge evolution away from the zero Covid strategy. And what happened with ChatGPT by OpenAI, which may be a marker of a profound change in what it means to be a machine and what it means to be human. Watch here #WallStreetWeek.
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These "trends" you cite are no different than the "emerging markets" narrative after 08 or the "IT" (Segway) delirium after 01. Sure AI holds promise and China is continuing to emerge but after great blow-off economic bubbles, economic forcasters (you) tend to grab for straws.
Not so with multi-trillion dollar events like the GFC, COVID lockdown and the like
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In other words, keep your eye on the first derivative.
Question: will the second derivative let you see even farther into the future?
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One of the big trends is just how much higher living standards are for everyone vs a few generations ago via antibiotics, food supply, etc. It’s easy to miss amid the noisy events.
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Trends in car loans, bank owned Real estate for sale in big cities.
" Trends most of the time are positive and events most of the time are negative. "
This is good teaching, Professor. Thanks for it.
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